Quote:
Originally Posted by lansdale
Exactly. Below, I've linked a study of a test of the Ziemba pool arbitrage technique featured in 'Beat the Racetrack'. The authors found that the edge now disappears when all the commingled money (ca. 50%!!) comes in after betting closes, an aspect of handicapping with which we are now all too familiar. Apparently in the new edition, Ziemba makes it sound like he can still get +EV bets down at the last minute, but it seems he plays only on the big days, Derby e.g., when there is a guarantee of uninformed money in the pools. However, he does ackowledge that the late money is a real obstacle.
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc...=rep1&type=pdf |
What's funny is that I read his book and created a calculator program based off of it, place and show betting, about 20 years ago. Hard to believe.
I can see some inefficiencies arise in certain pools at certain times, but because of what you say, even then it was brutal unless you were going for a triple crown winner at Belmont, where the Place and Show typically pay more, a lot more (haha).
I love the game, but play mostly horizontals now, and usually mandatory payouts only unless I love a 5-6 race segment of a big racing day.
Great thread.
