02-21-2019, 08:42 AM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: Covington, Wa
Posts: 2,198
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lansdale
Exactly. Below, I've linked a study of a test of the Ziemba pool arbitrage technique featured in 'Beat the Racetrack'. The authors found that the edge now disappears when all the commingled money (ca. 50%!!) comes in after betting closes, an aspect of handicapping with which we are now all too familiar. Apparently in the new edition, Ziemba makes it sound like he can still get +EV bets down at the last minute, but it seems he plays only on the big days, Derby e.g., when there is a guarantee of uninformed money in the pools. However, he does ackowledge that the late money is a real obstacle.
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc...=rep1&type=pdf |
Thank you for the insightful observation.
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