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Happy Hunting Grounds for overlays
Favorites have high strike rates, ~45% but even so, ROIs are around 0.87.
Outside posts are generally bad bets with very low ROIs
But Favorites from outside posts can be a smart place to look for underbet horses. (Overlays)
Here are some unofficial numbers for the best ROI post when the starting horse is the favorite.
Ave odds were 2.50, so no need to kick out outliers. 2 year data except WBSB, 1 yr
Code:
Best post for favorite by ROI (2yr)
Track ROI Post
PPK 1.88 9
CALX 1.45 9
DTN 1.44 9
HAR 1.41 8
YR 1.26 8
RCR 1.21 6
GRVR 1.19 9
BigM 1.16 9
VD 1.10 7
STGA 1.09 8
FLMD 1.07 7
RIDC 1.05 8
TGDN 1.05 7
WBSB 1.04 6
NFLD 1.03 7
SCD 1.02 6
DD 1.01 5
PHL 1.01 6
BTVA 1.00 6
PCD 1.00 8
FHLD 0.99 1
MEA 0.98 5
MR 0.97 5
MVR 0.97 9
HAW 0.96 2
BR 0.94 4
LEX 0.94 6
LON 0.94 3
GEOD 0.92 5
HOP 0.90 4
PRC 0.90 5
Problem is it's hard to find outside post favorites.
For instance Yonkers post #8 only had 50 starts with the fave over the last 2 years but it did make $$
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.The only sure thing about luck is that it will change.
Bret Harte
Last edited by Ray2000; 02-09-2019 at 09:46 AM.
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