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Old 02-27-2018, 04:25 PM   #34
cj
@TimeformUSfigs
 
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Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,816
Quote:
Originally Posted by DeltaLover View Post
You are right in the sense that a flat ROI analysis like the one I present here leaves a lot of room of improvement; removing outliers and applying a moving window based on time are two of the ways to do so. More that this though your job is to predict the error in the crowd's estimate and not the most probable outcome of the race; this is the point I am trying to make here.
I think the ability of the jockey should be factored into the overall rating for each horse, those horses converted to an odds line, and the odds line determining betting. At no point do I consider how much the jockey gets bet by the public. It will be factored into my betting line already.

Simple example, lets say you use two ratings, horse and jockey, and count the jockey for 20%. Horse A is rated 100 and Horse B is rated 100. Horse A has a jockey that rates 100 on ability and horse B has a jockey that rates a 50. Overall ratings are Horse A is 100 and Horse B is 90. Convert those to an odds line and see how it plays out. I now the public will bet Horse A more because of the jockey but I also know that it is warranted. You need a premium to bet on Horse B in my opinion.

My point is that at no point do I consider if the jockeys are overbet or underbet normally by the crowd. I think that will all come out in the wash with a good odds line and comparing it to the public odds. But I definitely factor in the ability of the jockey.

One thing I would caution is that you need to factor in the jockey in past races as well. If Horses A and B have been continually ridden by the same jockey in previous races, make sure those 100 ratings reflect that as well.
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