Quote:
Originally Posted by MJC922
Especially keep in mind when it's the guy picking up a $5 dinner at King's Wok and driving in with a rusted ford pinto. The idea that all of these backside folks are infallible enough to make money because they know their horse is sharp and that you can spot that action to jump on it like a flea is I think very tough to prove one way or another. When I played professionally I paid little mind to it, the trainer usually liked their horses when everyone else did, when they were spotted and when the pace looked to be favorable.
There is such a thing as dead on the board I'll give you that, but IMO live on the board is as likely to be sharp players or nobodies with deep pockets than anyone else. There were times I cashed on $30 horses flat that none of the betting trainers had. I know, I was standing in the $50 line with them, and they knew too because they would listen to what I bet on, shake their head, watch it roll and shake it some more.
Whatever works is fine, I just don't buy it's necessarily backside money especially in drug-free HK.
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I would never attempt to determine the origin of the betting dollars. Backstretch employees may from time to time get good information about the horses in their care. That doesn’t mean that their wagering will have a major impact on the betting pools. I will say that a horse’s physicality as a known factor can out-weigh their appearance in the past performance data. More often than not this factor alone can lead to many of those big long shots winning or at least finishing in the money.
My personal experience using the tote analysis has time and again identified the true contenders (no matter what their odds might be) in a race based on the monetary wagering intentions of the connections. They certainly know a lot more about their horse’s mental and physical condition than I do.
