Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
I think angles like 2nd or 3rd off a layoff were more useful decades ago when trainers raced horses into shape.
Unless you know a trainer does poorly off a layoff or you can see a horse slowly rounding into form after a recent layoff, imo many horses are probably overbet these days on the assumption of improvement 2nd off a layoff that doesn't actually occur. Handicappers these days know not to almost automatically toss layoffs the way they did years ago because so many trainers are good at bringing them back sharp, but if they are better at bringing them sharp, that means fewer will improve 2nd off the layoff (and if they do, not as much).
(Lightly raced horses that are generally improving are a different story)
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I would have to believe that the higher the class the less a layoff matters.
