Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro
Thanks for some more interesting and rational comments.
However, I believe you have misunderstood my previous response to Dilanesp. He suggested that racing workouts were a thing of the past. I questioned that statement by indicating that handicappers still refer to observations of entries having a 2nd or 3rd run after a layoff as a positive indicator for a potential winning run. So what were these same entries doing in their 1st and 2nd runs after the layoff that their pre-race workouts couldn’t accomplish?
As I mentioned your conditioning explanation sounds valid as it pertains to you as some sort of workout routine that demonstrates progressive all out runs. They actually sound more like some racing workouts only because horses aren’t generally asked to run all out in their pre-race workouts to determine how fast they might cover a certain distance.
But assuming your conditioning results are accurate how would feel about placing a substantial wager on yourself if you were facing others on Sunday who could typically run a mile in 11:00 flat? Would you bet a lot? Or nothing at all.
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The answer for me depends on what I am capable of. I can't answer your question because I haven't run in many years (I walk). With horses, it is all a puzzle. You have layoff stats with trainers. You have race placement(if he is a legit 25,000 claimer off of a 90 day layoff and he is being put in for 16 he is either got major problems or this is a money run). The more Astute handicapper(I am not in this group) will actually track the specifics on trainers like what type of workout pattern he uses when his layoff horses fire. What type of workout pattern when they don't fire. Maybe the jockey choice might indicate how live he is. All these variables and the analysis of the are what makes up handicapping. The number 1 reason I prefer harness racing to Thoroughbreds besides the fact I am better at it, is every horse runs the same distance, week in and week out. Sometimes they miss 2 or 3 weeks, every so often a horse comes back off of a long layoff, but for the most part, I don't have to play this constant guessing game (is he ready to go or out for a workout as you call it.....). Thoroughbreds is one guessing game after another. This horse is off of a 6 month layoff, this one is first time route, this one is first time turf, this one is a 2nd time starter, this one is going from a turf route to a dirt sprint, this one hasn't raced or worked out in 45 days.... Yes, you can make individual educated guesses on each of these, but the more of these there are the more handicapping becomes guessing. Perhaps this provides a bigger edge to the more informed, but I don't have the time to become the more informed.
This is probably why you do well with your tote method. As MJC stated, you may be detecting "smart" money, but smart money is not necessarily barn money. Sometimes it is just smart money.
