Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro
That’s an interesting (guess) comment. If that scenario only pertains to something done in the past then why do people in the handicapping world continue to refer to the better betting possibilities as those where entries are coming into a race 2nd or 3rd time off a layoff?
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I look at this from my perspective. If I haven't run in months, and I take a one mile run today, I will be lucky to do a 12 minute mile. After doing the 12 minute mile today, I can probably go 11:45 on Friday, and 11:30 on Saturday....Thus if a horse is a first time starter, or coming off a layoff or going a distance of ground for the first time (say 6F to 1 1/8) we don't know if he is in condition to win today. Somebody that studies workout patterns may have a really good idea(I am not that person so I can't tell you). I don't assume the horse will win or won't win, but I will not be surprised if he shows up his next race and improves off today's effort. Doesn't mean the connections aren't trying and maybe they aren't, but simple progression of a horses conditioning will make the horse get better until he is completely fit. Past figures are generally a good basis to determine what kind of improvement the horse may have in him 2nd or 3rd off the layoff. I think the area that thoroughbred racing is blatantly bad is with first time/2nd time starters. Over the years I have just pretty much learned to consider a second time starter with a poor debut race as a first time starter. I have seen 2nd time starters pop up with all kinds of eye opening wins and it doesn't always show up on the board before the race. Industry definitely seems to allow this to go on with regularity.
So in these areas it is buyer beware, also you have the horse that being conditioned for a stakes race and now he is in a nw2. He will likely be 3/5 and likely win because he is better than his competition, but, don't expect them to squeeze the lemon dry to win a small purse today when there is a large purse coming up.
Most of this stuff is common sense. If trainers are going much beyond this than you are getting into a big problem area.
