Quote:
Originally Posted by AndyC
Nonsense. Assessing a horse's probability of winning has no relationship to rebates or the amount of rebates.
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Okay, a retired horseplayer, says nonsense, so nonsense it is. Let's ignore the fact that Ian Meyers (that is working for some of these upcoming teams) claims these teams of phd's are investing millions of dollars before they make their first bet. The millions of dollars they are investing must be because they hate money and not because they know there is a leak in the system (rebates) that will reward them well beyond their initial investment. I know my corner store (the 3 that are left) offers rebates, why shouldn't racing (I have gone through that at least 10 times by now).
It's funny in the off topic forum I always read about how much people hate wealth redistribution. This is wealth redistribution from the everyday horseplayer to teams betting hundreds of million of dollars a year. Every dollar they are able to bet at below takeout will drive up the takeout on the rest. Since they bet huge amounts of money at well below takeout, the public gets hammered (encouraged by and strongly supported by a racing industry that is completely lost in how to grow their sport).
But that will not resonate with a lot of you. What is coming across loud and clear is that horseplayers are getting tired of their horses constantly paying lower than the toteboard indicates as the horses are loading the gate. This is mainly because of rebates. Have the Whales have just gotten better and more precise in their estimations? Possibly. Is racing is getting more desperate and whales are taking up a higher percentage of the pools than ever before and is now forced to make backroom deals giving the whales better deals than ever before? Possibly. Whatever the case this is not a game most of us have a reasonable chance of beating and for the vast majority of horseplayers it is just a major leak in their gambling dollar until it gets replaced by another form of gambling.
Hey if you are currently beating this game, more power to you. If you are not, I would think strongly about what this game has become. This game is extremely time consuming. If it provides recreation and you don't mind losing some to pay for it, great. I agree, it is a very fun game. But if you think there is a light at the end of the tunnel, I would think again. This game was tough enough to beat when weren't seeing 20 to 40 % reductions in payoffs between the gate springing and the horse entering the winners circle which happens with regularity now.
