Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
Until we see a confirmed study of such things, I chalk this up to selective anecdotal experience.
Of course you're going to remember the ones that screwed you the most and think it happens all the time and only to winning horses. It's human nature.
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I would feel confident saying that this does happen a lot, but again, it's not due to past-posting.
Whales dump tons of money into the pools at the last possible second. They actually have guys whose job is to sync up TV feeds and tote feeds and figure out exactly when to hit a button and dump in thousands of wagers, preferably at 2-3 seconds before the jump.
Fun side note, this button guy is how they skirt around being declared "robo-bettors" (which are illegal in many jurisdictions), and instead are defined as "computer assisted wagering". Meaning software is still generating all of the wagers, but a human being is ultimately sending in all of the bets.
Whales are also pretty good at making picks. Ergo, when these guys dump $50k+ on the same 10-1 horse that you like, it's not surprising that it winds up at 6-1 instead.
It doesn't really matter if you stop betting when the gate breaks, when the first horse enters, when the clock hits 0 MTP, or 3 MTP, or whatever other benchmark you want to use. There's always going to be a large amount of last-second money, which is always going to result in odds shifting. And unless Elon Musk is going to invest in horse racing and develop a global tote network that operates at the speed of light, there's always going to be a delay in getting those final odds back to the tote boards and TV displays.
One realistic solution I think could help is locking out the whales earlier; say at 2 MTP. The track still gets their money, the public gets to see how it impacts the odds, and then they still have a good 2-3 minutes left to place their bets (or cancel bets that they no longer want). There may still be an odds shift after all betting stops, but it wouldn't be nearly as dramatic as what we see now.
Of course as things stand right now, no track has any incentive to try this (and even less incentive to risk pushing away their whales). So I'm not holding my breath. But it's the best compromise that I can see.
