Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
I created a fibonacci-based weighting to rank position.
They still have a rank position (even though it is terrible).
|
Thank you for the clarification. I tend to think of using fibs in terms of price points, but I suppose in a weight-for-age race it can also be useful for determining a true odds line, though I'd have to think that over a bit. While the true odds remain static, the tote odds would fluctuate back and forth across critical inflection points, at least in theory.
As for my odds line for the Derby, I take into account the odds and relative chances to win, as well as a single projected order of finish. Plenty of chaos and other noise, but what can you do? Which means the horse I'll be betting, Enticed, isn't really the one I consider most likely to win, but he represents the most value, IMHO. Something like this, in a projected order of finish, with M/L odds, current odds Friday night with $1.2M in the win pool, and my rough odds to win.
# 12 Enticed (30-1, 52-1, .10)
# 7 Justify (3-1, 7-2, .21)
# 6 Good Magic (12-1, 8-1, .15)
# 9 Hofburg (20-1, 24-1, .09)
# 5 Audible (8-1, 6-1, .06)
# 20 Combatant (50-1, 79-1, .05)
# 10 My Boy Jack (30-1, 5-1, .05)
# 15 Instilled Regard (50-1, 99-1, .03)
# 17 Solomini (30-1, 68-1, .03)
# 18 Vino Rosso (12-1, 18-1, .05)
**Mendoza Line (for betting) goes about here*******
# 4 Flameaway (30-1, 53-1, .02)
# 11 Bolt d'Oro (8-1, 8-1, .02)
# 2 Free Drop Billy (30-1, 42-1, .02)
# 8 Lone Sailor (50-1, 29-1, .00)
# 13 Bravazo (50-1, 68-1, .00)
# 14 Mendelssohn (5-1, 5-1, .05)
# 3 Promises Fulfilled (30-1, 41-1, .01)
# 1 Firenze Fire (50-1, 65-1, .01)
# 16 Magnum Moon (6-1, 13-1, .05)
# 19 Noble Indy (30-1, 49-1, .00) Not sure what his odds are for this, but I'd bet him to finish last if I was in Vegas or England.
Good luck to all....
