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Old 04-12-2019, 03:56 PM   #36
Data Warbucks
Gakiss2's Avatar
Join Date: Dec 2018
Location: Lexington, KY
Posts: 261
Lots of detail

Originally Posted by eqitec View Post
Re: "...maybe we should all buy past performances for the Trainers"?

Having often had a similar inclination, I developed a Trainer Profile reporting system. An example from 9/17 for the aforementioned Jason Servis is shown below. I have a few hundred of these and find them very useful as a reference point when I am not sure about a trainer's tendencies.

Hopefully it's self-explanatory. If not let me know.
I could pretty well follow the information being presented. Tons of detail. Any chance you would be willing to share these trainer profiles? Or maybe you could put them in a book and sell them? I can see where a horse player might find something like this valuable.

So some other thoughts. Could trainers be put in buckets representing training 'style' then just give each a label much in the same way we put horses in a category like Presser or Front Runner. Like anything else, the devil is in the details but there could still be value in that.

We are all used to a trainers Win% and the PP providers often give us 'situational' win percentage as well. I glance at that but to it lacks context. I feel you really need to understand trainer intention.. Could there be a way to track the Trainer's win percent when he really 'intends' to win. And then the second part of that is to figure out when he / she 'intends' to win. For that I try to be mindful of 'angles'.

And from the trainer profiles you have, I do understand the concept of trainer's having a style and the varied results. But do you see any generalized conclusions from your profiles such as we have been discussing and I have been trying to capture in my algorithm? Generalized is not as powerful as trainer specific but generalized is much easier to put into to an excel formula

Thank You very much for your input
BTW Just won a P3 at Keeneland based at least in part on Fitness Score.
A profit at the race track isn't a profit until you spend it somewhere else.
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