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Old 03-30-2019, 05:23 PM   #3
Data Warbucks
Gakiss2's Avatar
Join Date: Dec 2018
Location: Lexington, KY
Posts: 261
Thanks for the feedback

Thanks for the input. I had always been leary of making much of workout time since I suspect they can run the horse pretty much at whatever speed they like and sometimes it is better for them to hide form.

One thing I have always wondered about and am hoping maybe you or someone can answer. It is legal / allowed for a trainer to run a horse on a private course and not make that public? The cynic in me would suspect some would to that as well to hide form. Any info is appreciated.

so far my model is very basic.

3 pts for a race within 15 days, 2pts for a race within 21 days, 1 for a race within 28 days and 0.5 pts for less than 38 days then -1 for longer than that.

2 pts for a 7 day pattern, 1 for a 14 day pattern and 0.5 for a 21 day pattern. -1 point for no pattern. I consider a pattern at least 3 recent 'events' (race or WO) with gaps less than 30 days.

Then there are large demerits for a race less than 9 days or 3 races in the last month. I am taking these on faith based on something I read, somewhere.

I see lots of situations where a horse hasn't raced in a couple months but the trainer has run them through a pattern of workouts such as described above. I can't help but think that is less valuable toward fitness than the horse that has actually raced a couple of weeks ago. On the other hand I don't think the lack of the recent race (given a reasonable work program) would cause me to count that horse out of the win on that alone. I am hoping to learn how to 'measure' these situations.

On a more positive note this project has already helped my bottom line! I have spent so much time fiddling with Excel that I didn't place as many losing bets as usual
A profit at the race track isn't a profit until you spend it somewhere else.
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