Quote:
Originally Posted by Redboard
I just checked the 10-day for Arcadia and, after tonight when there could be a brief shower, there’s no rain for the next ten days. According to Peterson and LaRocco, the track is consistent. If the breakdowns continue to happen, that could be a problem, but I would wait until we get two or three weeks of dry weather before panicking. If anyone here wants to bet( as a charity thing) that the BC is going to be moved from SA this year, I’m in. With the loser having to donate to help support PaceAdvantage.com. Just name your price.
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I am not going to bet anything. I think the chances of a move are less than 5 percent. My claim (and I think Randall's as well) is that the BC is keeping lines of communication open just in case a move becomes necessary. Given the amount of preparation and work that goes into putting on a BC, they would be crazy not to be.
Having said that, I think your assumption that these fatalities are purely a result of bad weather is just that, an assumption. They could also be a result of statistical bad luck, the horse shortage, medication problems, the composition of the track (including what is under the track), etc. We don't know. And for that reason we don't know what's going to happen after March 23. Heck, we don't even know if there will be enough horses left to run races through April and May- the track is talking about some pretty severe restrictions on training and racing, increased vet's inspections, etc.
And I might add, even if it is the weather, there is already a storm forming and a 20 percent chance of rain on March 22. So there's that.
We really have no idea of the future here. It could be that they get back to racing, the track is fine, the fatality rate declines, and the new restrictions do not shrink the racehorse population significantly, leaving plenty of decently-sized fields for horseplayers to bet on. That can happen.
But there are all sorts of other futures-- futures involving continued fatalities, futures involving Santa Anita being unable to fill races, futures involving a public backlash against the sport, etc. And everyone who has any sort of long term investment in Santa Anita-- including the Breeders' Cup-- is acutely aware of this.
