According to the
LA Times article from my post above, horses under Hollendorfer's care have suffered 8 on track fatalities in California over the past 13 months.
I ran some stats that may (or may not) help put that in perspective.
Below is a cut and paste of stats from my current database for Hollendorfer thoroughbreds at California tracks over the past 13 months - from Nov 01 2018 current through Sunday Dec 15 2019:
Code:
query start: 12/17/2019 8:54:18 AM
query end: 12/17/2019 8:54:18 AM
elapsed time: 0 seconds
Data Window Settings:
Connected to: C:\JCapper\exe\JCapper2.mdb
999 Divisor Odds Cap: None
SQL UDM Plays Report: Hide
SQL: SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY
WHERE TRAINER='HOLLENDORFER JERRY'
AND INSTR('DMR-FNO-GGX-LRC-PLN-SAC-SAX-SRX', TRACK) > 0
AND [DATE] >= #11-01-2018#
AND [DATE] <= #12-15-2019#
ORDER BY [DATE], TRACK, RACE
Data Summary Win Place Show
-----------------------------------------------------
Mutuel Totals 943.50 920.60 934.90
Bet -1230.00 -1230.00 -1230.00
-----------------------------------------------------
P/L -286.50 -309.40 -295.10
Wins 112 206 296
Plays 615 615 615
PCT .1821 .3350 .4813
ROI 0.7671 0.7485 0.7601
Avg Mut 8.42 4.47 3.16
My database shows that Hollendorfer thoroughbreds made 615 starts at tracks in California over the past 13 months - from Nov 01 2018 current through Sunday Dec 15 2019.
Doing some math --
If the stats in the LA Times article are correct and 8 Hollendorfer thoroughbreds suffered 8 fatalities while running in races at tracks in California over the past 13 months:
Then the fatality rate for Hollendorfer thoroughbreds while racing in California over the past 13 months is 1.3 percent calculated as follows:
0.01300813 = (8/615)
Which works out to 13.00813 fatalities per 1000 runners calculated as follows:
13.00813 = 1000 x (8/615)
A few weeks ago, the Boodhorse reported a US fatality rate of 1.61 horses per 1000 runners after looking at data spanning the past 5 fiscal years in The Jockey Club's Equine Injury Database.
Hollendorfer's fatality rate in California over the past 13 months is more than 8 TIMES that of the national fatality rate for the past 5 fiscal years in The Jockey Club's Equine Injury Database - and can be calculated as follows:
8.07958 = (13.00813/1.61)
I'll be the first to admit Hollendorfer's spike in fatalities could very well be just that - a spike in fatalities and nothing else.
However, 615 runners over 13 months is hardly a tiny sample.
Other tracks (Los Al and Oaklawn) seem perfectly willing to welcome a trainer ruled off the grounds from Santa Anita, Golden Gate, and Del Mar for reasons not disclosed to the public - and whose thoroughbreds have suffered a spike in fatality rate.
In my opinion:
This looks bad (very bad) for thoroughbred racing.
I've been told Del Mar initially decided to uphold the decision by Santa Anita and Golden Gate track management to take Hollendorfer entries at their track... but relented after Hollendorfer went to court and asked for an injunction.
Allow me to put that another way:
Del Mar took the path of least resistance. They decided to allow Hollendorfer to run rather than fight him in court.
Ditto for Los Al.
Ditto for the CHRB through all of this.
And Ditto for Oaklawn Park and the Arkansas Racing Commission apparently.
And so here we are.
-jp
.
