Consider that I've started to study the M3 few months ago and this thread represent one of the best free resources I've found on the web.
But, I can make some considerations on the basis of the underlying price (RUT) from 2014 to end 2016.
2014: This was the best period, during the year the price range was 100 points (1100-1200) that is the optimal scenario for an M3 with 50-points wings. The market was no-trending and it was easier to have the price under the tent.
2015: the market range was 200 points (1100-1300) but, except for the downturn in July, the average monthly range (holding period of an M3) was less than 100 points which lead to a profitable scenario.
2016: the market range was 450 points (950-1400) with a strong up-trend every month; in this scenario the price easily moved over the upper wing of the butterfly requiring multiple adjustments; moreover, the lower volatility that characterizes an up-trending market decreased the premiums (hence lower return/risk).
What is your thought?
It would be interesting to find efficient ways to handle these situations.
