Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
I wonder how much of Quirin's stuff actually held up over larger sample sizes. They were pretty small if memory serves, obviously being limited for several reasons at the time.
|
I believe his study was based on data collected over several years. In any case, while large sample sizes are fine, they are often over estimated by the general public. I agree that in certain specific situations sample size needed to be limited, but he handled these professionally. Exactly what I have been advising you to anticipate in your own study of pace patterns with suggestions you have been getting to include multiple variables. Much more important is how the data is collected and used. He also gave excellent explanations for his findings consistent with logic and science. His use of regression analysis to develop a comprehensive betting method that weighed all the handicapping factors according to research findings was brilliant.
As far as applicability, 82% of Amazon customers gave his book their top rating. I observed that his findings hold up from my own experience and observations spanning 60 years.
His methodology could not be criticized by anyone with formal training in research methodology. Take it from me, as someone well known for my critical approach to how research is done, Quirin's work is excellent, notwithstanding the criticisms of those who are attached to the handicapping theories that came about before modern research methodology was used in the field. I know you are familiar with who I am referring to.
It's only limitation I see is that he had to use the old inaccurate DRF speed figures. I would love to see a modern study using today's more accurate modern speed and pace figures, which is why I anticipating your current study on pace patterns.
