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I agree with Papillon , sort of. I think Noble Indy has a shot to win. If you draw a line through the derby , it was on the slop, he has just as good a chance as anybody (if you believe Justify won't win this race, and there's solid historical arguments for that). As far as how will he be used, I don't think there's any reason to use him as a rabbit, on any other kind of spoiler. He's not your typical rabbit running-style anyway.
I think he will try to "run his race," but not on the lead. Sit off the pace and hope that the more rest he's had than Blended Citizen, Bravazo, Justify & Tenfold , will put him over the top.
The Belmont is a strange race with historically crazy results. Creator, Tonalist, Palice Malice, Ruler On Ice, to name a few double-digit winners this decade.
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