Quote:
Originally Posted by dnlgfnk
While in my visual handicapping days I made the mistake of making decisions about a horse soon after the race, having joined the "shop for overlays" crowd for a long while now,
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I agree with everything you said.
I'm going to hijack my own thread, but this was an interesting comment because it's something I still think about all the time.
Making an Odds Line is fraught with peril because we are all operating with incomplete information (sometimes incorrect information) and have an imperfect understanding of everything. That makes it difficult to know when your odds line is wrong or the public is wrong.
On the flip side, looking for horses you think may have some hidden quality that will be underappreciated by the crowd (or identify a horse that's not as good as he looks to bet against) does not guarantee that the horse will be spotted well or bet the way you think next time. You may be right about the horse and still be betting an underlay because the crowd is catching on or at least aware of this one.
It's a kind of strategic dilemma that I've gone back and forth on for a long time.
