The only reason Flaming Glory remains etched in my memory is that he appeared in the entries on a day when my sister and bro-in-law were seeking my opinion on a trip to Arlington for Million weekend, 2008.
After the wide trip on June 25, 2008 (video a bit grainy now) where he went 4T, 5-6 ES, and held his ground evenly through the stretch, I became interested in him...
...on July 13. Again he encountered virtually the same trip, 4T and entering stretch, again hanging on evenly through the stretch...
Now up against some of the same rivals again (Lord Vader, Classic Sky, Stars of the Sea), he finally got the anticipated good trip from PP 3, as the 5th betting choice.
While in my visual handicapping days I made the mistake of making decisions about a horse soon after the race, having joined the "shop for overlays" crowd for a long while now, I find ground loss invaluable as a predictive factor when considering low bet horses who have consecutively saved ground, or potential overlays who have undergone Flaming Glory trips and figure to experience a different scenario in their next race.
Additionally, after years of observation I subscribe to a much more subtle, nuanced, consistently "biased" track (not dictating, but influencing) that gradually favors the outside on straights due to the movement of moisture, and the rail on turns due to simple mathematics. I find the daily, dramatic reactions to consecutive results (#1, #1, #2 or #9, #12, #10, etc.)
to be exaggerated. The biggest effects are, of course, when a horse has benefited from one aspect of the track and is encountering nearly the opposite today, all under the umbrella of pace, resulting in value.
