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this is an unscientific observation but anyway
years ago I had this idea that shots would be more likely to win in certain types of races
specifically I was looking at cheap maiden claimers and races with first time starters
my thinking was that with these cheap maiden claimers so often all of the horses are so bad it would be very hard to back one as a fave
my thinking was that with first time starters it would be all but impossible to name a fave since you could only rely on breeding, and jock and trainer and workouts - and to me that seems to be hardly enough
so, I looked at a couple of hundred races in each category
and I was quite surprised to find out how wrong I was
in each category the fave won about 33% just as in racing overall
so, my idea fell far short of being brilliant
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believe only half of what you see.....and nothing that you hear..................Edgar Allan Poe
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