08-02-2020, 12:06 PM
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#177
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 4,285
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Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
Maybe I'm wrong, but I think the game has changed a little.
I can't "out math", "out calculate", "out odds line", or "out bet" guys with sophisticated computer handicapping models and betting algorithms.
All I can do is find situations where my own testing suggests there is still value. Maybe they are too specific for the computer guys to code for, generally misunderstood, or those guys aren't using the same methodology and/or data.
If you have insights like that, even if the odds move around, you should still be in safe territory with just a casual glance at the board. That's easier said than done of course. But it seems better than making an odds line of 3-1, seeing the horse at 6-1 with a minute to go, making the wager, and watching him go off at 2-1 last flash.
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I totally concur. It is a fool's game to try and outwit the bigboys on their playing field.
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