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Old 09-11-2018, 04:53 PM   #31
Poindexter
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Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 1,964
Quote:
Originally Posted by o_crunk View Post
Some cobbled together stats on horses breaking through gate and having that denoted in charts. These stats go back about 10 years:

https://twitter.com/o_crunk/status/999296747548676096

Pretty compelling evidence that these horses should indeed be scratched. It is a huge disservice to the public keeping them racing. But then again when has racing ever cared about the public? Obviously a huge edge can be had by tossing the favorite if he breaks through the gate and playing a multi leg exotic keying other key contenders But the other side of the coin is if you happen to be stuck with one of these horse as a single, you are in big trouble. The favorite data, that really speaks volumes. At a minimum they should be winning at at least a 30% clip and they are only winning at a 13.6% clip. Wow. The less than 40% itm % on favorites is certainly a huge trifecta opportunity (just toss these horse when they are favorites and low odds). Also I am sure a lot of money is taken off of these horses by those who see the event and are able to cancel the tickets, so the numbers don't even tell the complete story.

I am sure there are a few out there that make a killing on these situations and want me to stfu .

Regarding the stats presented, how did you come up with an expected 23.5% wins? Horses won 21.23%(5/23.5) as often as they should have but had a 50% roi. That cannot be right. Even the favorite data doesn't make sense. Favorites have to win at at least a 30% clip(expected) you have them winning 13.6% clip. So given the typical roi on a horse is about .8, the roi probably should be less than .40 yet you have them at .639 roi.
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