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I strongly disagree that the public always or almost always prices horses correctly
I'm going to point to one race and I'm fully aware that one race doesn't prove anything
the Malibu Stakes
several posters here, posted that Charlatan looked like the much stronger horse than Nashville - he had Grade 1 experience as did all the other horses in the race. and had run in longer races. he also had higher speed figures - Nashville had only run in a minor stakes. Nashville's best race was at 6, now he was going to have to go 7 furlongs - he had never gone that far - it was pretty obvious to many here that there was a good chance the G1 horses would run him down
and all those posters here who said that were right
Nashville finished a weak 4th more than 8 lengths back
But Nashville was made the fave at 1.3/1
I'm all but sure it had nothing to do with insiders
it had to do with the public mistakenly guessing that Nashville was going to be sensational because of his one excellent race at a shorter distance
this is just one example - but there are lots
it may not happen often - but it happens sometimes
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believe only half of what you see.....and nothing that you hear..................Edgar Allan Poe
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