Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
IMO, the value is in information not publicly available or especially that's being misunderstood by other serious players.
|
Efficient market. "Priced in".
100% agree
Yes, the general, publicly available info is accurate for most horses. If you are using the same info and speed figures, in the same ways, you will be splitting your takeout-reduced winnings with a bunch of other players, and it will be a negative ROI in the long term.
Wildcard
Playing with public info, or exclusive info, occasionally 'unknown' horses do occur.
Good example of a winning type = Chilean-bred SANENUS in yesterday's Grade 3, La Canada Stakes at Santa Anita. $17Win.
I don't have a good strategy for wildcard/unknown types. I'll glance at the board, but true unknowns tend to hover in the mid-range prices.
Exclusive Inside Info: These can come from your own insight as you watch races. Unfortunately, I don't have all the big trainers, grooms and jockeys in my DMs/on speed dial. Occasionally the money talks. You see a horse hot or cold, and it's worth considering.
Misunderstood: 'Hype' overrated are the easiest, but not very frequent. You have to do some digging in the pace figures, and pace projector, and/or watching races in order to form an occasional disagreement with the consensus betting market.
