Quote:
Originally Posted by Track Phantom
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OLmVTr9hq8Q
This is EXACTLY why the game is floundering. Smart money has turned into Nostradamus.
It's incredible how often the late money is right on. You'll see a horse at 6-5 morning fluctuate between 3-5 and even money for 17 minutes. The last click he'll be 9-5 and a 7-2 morning line runner (who had been hovering around 3-1) is now 6-5 and wins by a football field.
I have no idea what type of nefarious behavior is giving the late money the edge but it is impossible for people to be THAT right using the same rudimentary data we all have. IM-POS-SIB-LE
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The post time favorite wins approximately 35% of the time. 12 of 32 is 37.5% of the time, and from this - about as small a sample as could be reasonably expected to gather any sort of reasonable data from - that seems within the typical standard deviation of win percentage (less than 30 samples is really not a good sample size, 32 is barely passing).
If there are heavy favorites over representing the sample set - then the win percentage would probably increase. I see nothing in the sample set that would suggest anything nefarious is occurring.
