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Old 12-25-2017, 12:38 PM   #50
Cholly
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Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 946
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mc990 View Post
The win odds on a given horse are mostly commensurate in the multis... 10-15 years ago, maybe not so much. Yes, I understand that there will be more anomalies with smaller pools but if you calculate probable win odds from the doubles, the last second odds drops will be less surprising than just basing it on the board with "X" minutes to post...

Again, it's by no means an exact science but I'd be willing to bet that 90% of the time when someone complains about a drop, it is the price merely coming into line with the double will pays
This works best if you use the will-pays from the favorite in the previous race; as the odds from the winner in the previous race increase, the predictability becomes less-so.

I only play NYRA, so can't comment on how this works elsewhere. 90%? Maybe a little high. 75%? For sure. When the odds don't move in the direction of the double will-pays, that also tells you something...stable betting or betting from someone who knows something, or THINKS they know something.
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