Quote:
Originally Posted by MJC922
My hunch is there's some validity to it but unless you can come up with a metric to capture it and then test that metric to see if it increases accuracy then it may not be worth paying attention to. I feel the same way about track bias or anything else. I know there is a track bias sometimes but let's see a metric that ends up having some impact on the forecasting.
What I suspect you'll have with a rider on a streak is oftentimes just random variability, but even if the rider's recent string of successes is somewhat random there may also be something to be said for the confidence and state of mind. Maybe that transmits to the horse. It may even be worthwhile as a negative factor but not a positive, i.e. if the rider is hesitant and tentative for whatever reason could be a recent spill or several close calls etc, it wouldn't surprise me if some horses can pick up on that and act accordingly.
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I'm sure injuries and personal problems impact performance, but I'm starting to think insiders have such a huge edge in understanding changes in a horse's condition, a sharp agent with a hot rider becomes a kind of self reinforcing process. If a jockey has been winning a lot lately and a trainer knows a horse is primed for an "A" effort, he/she will seek out the hot rider, which in turns leads to more winners, which in turn supports the idea that the rider is hot and moving horses up (and vice versa).
The bias issue is another good one. I've been doing some data studies on that, but I'll take it to another thread when I get a chance.
