Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
I am simply saying that while the whole "make-a-line-and-bet-into-it" approach is so logical (and comfortable), it just never seems to work.
Same with Kelly.
Dave
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Concur, Mr. Schwartz.
As we know, Kelly is a mathematical function. If you absolutely know the probabilities and the return on investment, it works, just assuredly as the Titanic sinking once it was holed.
Therefore, the only conclusion we can draw is that, in horse race handicapping, the probabilities of winning are actually lower than the handicapper estimates.
And the truth is, the public is a much better handicapper than the great majority of individuals. So when an individual says the probability of winning is 25% and he/she thinks she has an overlay at 5 or 6-1 (and begins to salivate like Pavlov's dog), well, the fact of matter is that the probability of that horse winning is really probably closer to 15 or 20%, creating an underlay. And thus, when this is repeated over and over again, Kelly "seems not to work". But it ain't Kelly that ain't workin'...it's the handicapping that is deficient.
(Disclaimer - Dave knew all this, but didn't wanna say it. LOL)