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Originally Posted by chickenhead
... So his total ticket costs are $3,348. What I don't like about his ticket is that $1440 are committed to beating one of his two locks from above, either Liam or Leroi. This left substantially less money to spread in the races where he did not have such a strong opinion -- particularly the sprint, where in the biggest upset of the day, which he predicted, he had 4 A's and no B's -- also in the F+M turf, which he spread 3A 3B 3C.
... Is it really smart to bet against your strongest opinions to the tune of 40%? Or should those truly be your keys, i.e. you must insist that you give yourself the best possible shot to get paid when your very strongest opinions are correct. And if they are not correct, so be it.
That is kind of how I look at it, but I've never hit the big pick 6's. I realize that in a p6 sequence, especially one with some interesting things happening, you can't insist on being too right about too many things, but it seems like insisting on being right about one or two things (assuming you have some strong opinions) ups your chances significantly.
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C-HD,
The beauty of the BC is that the quality of the fields is so high that the difference between the ability of most favorites and those of the rest of their fields is not as great as in most other stakes and lesser contests.
The Mile has seldom been kind to favorites. Leroi and Rock of Gibralter come to mind immediately as best horses who lost. Did either of those two look any less formidable than Bernardini looks in this year’s Classic?
Unless one’s name is Grant Stone, one usually needs at least one ALL race. When one can play $3348 or more, one can go deep in ALL races. Having the strong opinion that the favorite will win is not always a good one, but singles are where you find them.
A stopped clock is always right twice a day, but if one buys enough haystacks, one is certain to find a needle.
