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At least in part, there are two competing value concepts in a pick 6.
Stealing from the value betting thread, strong opinions are what create value (assuming they are right often enough to be useful). Further to that, the difference of opinion between you and the public is the measure of how much value you have created (I prefer created to found).
But in a pick 6, as I think Crist really intelligently puts out there, due to the nature of the pool betting in proper proportions creates its own value, i.e. the public massively overbets the favorites in the pools due to the rapidly growing number of possible combinations.
So it makes sense that it is difficult to create value alone by having a strong opinion on a favorite, no matter how bold you are the pool is probably just as bold. Value really has to come elsewhere -- either by beating a heavy favorite, or by getting some interesting horses home elsewhere.
It's this interplay between boldness and betting in proper proportion (which as it relates to the pool is bold in it's own way) that I think makes this bet the most difficult of all. I thinks thats why Crist structured his play the way he did, trying to balance boldness in his own line with boldness vs. the pool.
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