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Originally Posted by Overlay
My initial take on the point being made is that it seems similar to previous wagering strategies I've read about where the inclusion of a horse with a high probability of winning (even if that horse by itself is slightly underlaid) in a group wager with overlaid horses can result in a higher expected return than if the underlaid horse were excluded.
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My research has pretty much confirmed this. As a multi-horse win bettor, and a superfecta bettor, I have found that ignoring a lower priced horse, who you grade well, and is a definite contender under your own grading system, costs you more in the long run. Even if sometimes that horse wins but you have a negative return for the race, you lose less long term, in those circumstances than when you leave it off the ticket completely.
Of course this is contingent on you having a very good grading system. Otherwise, you may find that your average win prices and hit rates don't combine to produce long term profit.
