Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
IMO...it wasn't the "public", per say, who made this horse the 3-2 choice in this race. Horses with mediocre speed figures and nondescript running lines don't get the overwhelming betting support of the "public"...especially when these horses figure to be in last running position during the early part of a sprint race. I doubt that a high lifetime-best off-track speed figure could account for such betting action...especially when it was pretty obvious that this horse was no longer the horse that it once was.
If this horse had won at odds of 3-1...then I wouldn't have bothered to start this thread. But the horse was the overwhelming favorite in a competitive race...and I thought this oddity was worth mentioning on this board, if only as an indication that the "smart money" don't just rely on the figures and the replays in order to make their selections.
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That was my point in the other thread, that kind of got sidetracked into other discussions on late odds or on odds movement in general.
If a horse takes significant (vying for favoritism?) $money, and you don't fully understand why, then if you proceed with a wager, you should view it as a dice roll (whether you include the horse, or whether you stick to your guns). A horse like that could be the best in the race, or he could be a total bum whose past form and dip into conditional clm triggered irrational action. The crux is whether or not you understand the why. So, if you thought he was a 3/2 horse, you'd pass (no value). If you didn't know why, you'd either pass or consciously make a recreational dice roll. Or, if you understood why the 4 was taking money, yet strongly disagreed, you'd have a prime play.
