I LOOKED AT 68 “MODEL” EXACTA RACE PLAYS IN 8 HORSE FIELDS WHERE THE PICK WAS THE FAVORITE.
THE FLAT BET WIN POOL ROI WAS 1.10.
THE PICK OVER THE 2 BETTING CHOICE RETURNED 1.18 ROI
OVER THE 3RD CHOICE , 1.04
4TH CHOICE, .91
5TH CHOICE, .86
6TH CHOICE, 1.57
7TH CHOICE, .47
8TH CHOICE, .96
WITH THE PICK OVER ALL, THE ROI WAS 1.00
(COULD THAT BE RIGHT?)
IN MY EXPERIENCE, FUTURE SAMPLING COULD EASILY INTERCHANGE THOSE ROIS SUCH THAT THE 2ND CHOICE COULD RETURN A .86 ROI AND THE 5TH CHOICE A 1.18 ROI.
WHAT I HAVE FOUND, MANY TIMES OVER IS I CAN NOT IMPROVE THE WIN POOL ROI BY BETTING EXACTAS, UNLESS OFCOURSE, I CAN HANDICAP THE PLACE HORSE..
I'M STILL WORKING ON THE WIN HORSE
