I'm 59, always been a multicolor pen/form guy. I've been using BRIS's Ultimates since 1997. About a year and a half ago I decided to explore other handicapping methods. I realized I had deficiencies. One of which was not being able to identify when the "cheap speed" or just speed in general, would win. I got into a trap where I was betting the strongest finisher most of the time. A lot of seconds and thirds
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I had the attitude that software programs just led you to the fave. But I opened my mind and started experimenting. I tried AllWays, Nuerax, MultiCaps, Trackmaster and even went back to DRF. Formulator was interesting, but I just can't live with the Beyers. MultiCaps opened my eyes to pace handicapping. I started seeing the E types that would be there at the wire. Then I joined HANA and they offered free PP's for their member race of the week. In those PP's was CJ's Pace Figures. Long story short, I signed up after a few more trials. I now use them in conjunction with the BRIS Ultimates. BRIS's 8 trainer/jock stats and the overall figs in the upper right are key elements for me.
I then decided I had to pick on a key bet. Another one of my faults was over extending on multi exotic wagers. I'm not a grinder. I only get to play 1-3 days a week and 1 is most often. The work thing. A few people here like to promote win and place betting on mostly faves. Not my style. I've also found that the pik 3 very often gives poor value when considering the hit rate probability. So I decided on the Pik 4. I could elaborate more on this but I don't want to write a book here.
I've learned a lot from the HANA website. I'm not ruling out playing 25% takeout exotics entirely, but I'm steering clear as much as I can. Monmouth's 15% takeout on the pik 4 is what I'm concentrating on now, but unfortunately their meet is about to end. I'm looking at SA, the Kentucky tracks and the winter meets at Gulfstream and Tampa as prime pik 4 tracks. They are all roughly 20%. I love NY racing, especially Belmont, but 26% on their Pik 4 is too much to accept. Win, Doubles and Exactas are the smartest way to bet there.
Ive also noticed that when I concentrate on a "key bet", I do a lot better with that group of races than the ones that follow. So here's my gameplan:
I'm going to pick a playable PIk 4. By playable, I mean no baby races, no maiden turf races with multiple starters with no turf form. Another one of my weaknesses. Some of my biggest hits have been maiden races, but 3,4,5 yr old on the dirt is the type I'm looking for. One thing thats not going to change is the amount of $ I allot to a day. Except for special occasions, like a road trip or BC day, $200 is what it is. I plan on covering the pik 4 with about half of my stake and using the other $100+ or so on value plays within the pik 4. Value could be a win bet, or keying a 20-1 shot over 4 in the tri. Whatever, if I pik this thing stone cold, the payoffs could be huge. I think its a good risk/reward strategy without committing any more $ than I normally would in a racing day.
Opinions??
