Quote:
Originally Posted by FakeNameChanged
I think you're missing the point. You don't know which ones are the top three, especially #1, until after the race is over, or halfway around the track. I defy anyone to give me the #1 odds horse at post time, and get a win bet down on it in 20 straight races. The top three, NFW.
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I think I have a very clear grasp of the point.
I've got zero interest in predicting who the top 3 public choices are. IMHO, that is a waste of time because - as you (basically) said - it's a moving target.
That's why I concentrate on what the odds SHOULD be.
If anything, the difference between what they should be and what they ARE would indicate the smart money.
But, still the same problem: How to accomplish that when that info isn't available until after the race is over.
For the record, our SHOULD BE predictions are "good." About 84% of the time the top horse goes off as either fav or 2nd choice.
Of course, a small percentage of the time a horse predicted to be under 3/1 goes off at 12/1 or above. Those horses are worthy of automatic bets.
