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I'll state the obvious. If i want to compare win probability of say the top public choice in different time periods, say monthly, I would normalize the monthly top choice win probability and compare that sum to the actual number of winners. Of course, the best analysis, is to compare these two sums, expected wins to actual wins by incremental odds. I would seek to minimize the increment for the largest
sample size . I always want to know the ratio of actual wins/expected wins . Repeat this for 2nd and 3rd choice.
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