Quote:
Originally Posted by gm10
To your first point ... Benter found that there was an extreme bias between his strongest overlays and the outcome of the race, i.e. his horse nearly always lost!
In the end, Benter did the common sense thing ... he combined his own odds with the public's in another multinomial logit model, and used the odds from that model to base his betting on.
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Dick Mitchell said the same thing - that his underlays outperformed his overlays.
I've also found that in the entire make-a-line-and-bet-into-the-tote process.
Benter made it work by... well, making it work. LOL
People from inside his former team, have told me that he started with a high weight for the public's opinion and, over time, was able to lower that weight substantially.
This approach, what I call, "smoothing," has fallen into disuse as the
final tote odds have moved towards higher efficiency relative to
gate odds.
The whales make it work by PREDICTING what those final odds will actually be. This naturally adds a new factor: "Who/How will the "really smart" money actually wager?"
My goal for the last 18 months or so has been to answer the question: "WHO WILL BE BET DOWN?"
IMHO, that is a game changer for the small handicapper. It is the great equalizer.
