Quote:
Originally Posted by MPRanger
Been listening to The Perfect Bet on Audibel. It was interesting that the author said Bill Benter the Hong Kong horse racing expert found that betting overlays lost him money until he adjusted to a number between his model and the tote board.
Also that only a population of about a thousand horses raced between the two Hong Kong tracks and shippers are rare. Seems like a database could easily be maintained. Maybe that's why he could use a model vs handicapping with tried and true elements of handicapping.
All thru the book the author refers to top contestants in racing and sports as predictions. I don't see handicapping as making predictions but evaluations where price is the determining factor.
Great book though.
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To your first point ... Benter found that there was an extreme bias between his strongest overlays and the outcome of the race, i.e. his horse nearly always lost!
In the end, Benter did the common sense thing ... he combined his own odds with the public's in another multinomial logit model, and used the odds from that model to base his betting on.
