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[the_fat_man]

Well, since my last post I watched some tape. (Including the Florida Derby and the Skip Away and some headons). As is typically the case, my perception of a act is a bit different than the act itself.

Here's my update to what I've posted so far:

JP threw me a bit with his comments about leads on the turn (I'm assuming he's referring to mid turn and beyond).

Assuming that horses don't naturally (or fequently) change leads on the turn (given DJs comments to this effect, and empirical evidence) there's no reason to be looking for them (mid turn and on).

Since most (or practically all) horses are on the left lead taking the turn, upon entering the stretch it's easy to pick out those changing immediately to the right lead, and those not changing, struggling to change, or changing late. A delay in, or lack of, a change should be noted and applied to one's evaluation of the trip. In either case, however, we know that they were on the left lead (at least) in the (last part of the) turn.

What still remains interesting to me, however, is what horses (if any at all) are changing GOING INTO the turn.

I really need to study some backstretch and turn headons.

What's typical for a one turn sprint, say 6f? left lead gate to entering the stretch (4F), then right lead to the wire (2F? right lead gate to turn(2F), lefty turn (2F), right stretch(2F)? etc.

As for the Florida Derby, upon further review:

I don't believe that Sunriver ran as well as I initially thought, though he was the only one to actually make a move in the race, and a wide one at that.
Whipping before entering the stretch is never a positive sign for me.

Sharp Humor appears one dimensional; Barbaro will always have his number as he appears to be the type of horse that can be positioned as desired.

Without seeing the headons, I can't comment on any intimidation through the stretch.