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Old 04-04-2019, 10:44 AM   #19
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Gakiss2's Avatar
Join Date: Dec 2018
Location: Lexington, KY
Posts: 261
Layoff Trainers

Originally Posted by Jeff P View Post
If someone had asked me this same question 30 years ago my answer (instantly) would have been horse.

Fast forward to today's game and my answer (sadly) has to be trainer.

If I look at data for layoff horses with the data broken out by trainer, I can't help but notice there are trainers out there who are (How am I supposed to describe this delicately?) working miracles compared to the stats of the better trainers from (say) 30 years ago.

The odd thing (to me) is that when the horses of these trainers show up to race again after extended layoffs I can't help but notice:
  • Many are carrying some serious muscle mass (that they didn't have before the layoff.)

  • Many don't have the workouts in their past performance records (in terms of fast times, distance, or spacing) that would have suggested condition or readiness to compete after an extended layoff in the game as it existed (say) 30 years ago.

My point is the game has changed. Imo, the extended layoff horse of today's game is very different than the extended layoff horse of yesteryear.

Imo, it pays to:
  • Learn to judge condition visually.

  • Familiarize yourself with trainer stats. Be aware of who excels with layoff horses. Imo, you have to at least consider the how and why. Imo, you also need to be aware of who has subpar stats with layoff horses.



Thank you for your insight. The deeper I get into this it sometimes seems more like a trainer contest than a horse race. Some advice I haven't really followed yet but made sense to me is to stick to a circuit and get to know the habits of the trainers. Heck, maybe we should all buy past performances for the Trainers then glance at the horses stats as a last minute double check.

Trainer stats = Horse fitness?? Not quite ready to go there but your advice to look closely at Trainer reputation, stats is well received. And yes, I do need to improve on my ability to judge condition visually.
A profit at the race track isn't a profit until you spend it somewhere else.
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