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Old 03-31-2019, 02:05 PM   #6
JohnGalt1
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 1,182
I try to limit my bets on horses that are in the top tiers in class and pace/speed if they are racing fit.

I can see when the horse ran, the class of races the horse ran in. and the speed it showed.

Even if workouts are shown, are some missing, miss-timed, with a light or heavy weight jockey. And of course we don't know if between workouts the horse was only hot walked or galloped every few days between official workouts.

Not knowing if a horse off a lay off is fit is my biggest challenge because of lack of knowledge of what I don't see. or know.

I will lose races to horse with class and speed off a two month layoff with on or two 3f workouts thinking the trainer is giving the horse a "training" race for the next race.

Even trainers like Jason Servis who's lay off horses always lack workouts where I know his horses are as fit as any in the race, I still don't know for sure IF they are fit if I saw more info.

&&&&&&&&&&&&&

Example race-- Oaklawn Thursday 9/28 Race 5
6f $10 claiming nw3
Serengeti (6-1 ML) last raced 12/18/18
workouts 3/22 3f 2/26 4f(a month ago)
Trainer Chris Hartman 90+days away 74 races 16% Very acceptable. This trainer usually shows work on these typed=s of layoff horses--why not this one?

The ten races showed one stake Best Pal 8/12/17, one stake, turf sprint, 5 allowance races, on $50k claiming race and maiden special race.

I ignored it since I didn't know if it was in racing fitness, though it was a standout with it's class and speed from it's past races, and that's what got it home wire-to-wire @ 2-1 if I remember.
Even if I did expect it to tire in the lane.

Some of you, and I know some at my track, that ignore workouts, assuming that all horses are fit or it wouldn't be entered, would've had that horse.

I couldn't trust it, because I've seen too many slower and less classy horse beat horse who tired in the stretch.

&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&

In the olden days this was a non concern for me. Horses ran every 2-4 weeks, mostly because there were more claiming races, and horses were more fit and we could follow their form cycles.

Very few horses today race often enough to HAVE form cycles.

I realize we have to speculate when we use our class, speed and form judgements, the speed number was set in the previous races, and we have to project if the class, speed and form from the past will defeat the numbers from the competition today.

If a race is filled with horses with recent races, fitness is not the question but by where are the horses in their cycles?

I still hate guessing if my horse off a layoff is fit.
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