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Old 03-30-2019, 08:59 PM   #5
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Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 190
Judging Horse Fitness by race and workout data

We are somewhat on the same wavelength in attempting to use race & workout data (which I call the "form cycle") to judge horse fitness. Attached is an extract of an info graphic for the horse you cited from today's 11th at GP (Restoring Hope) that I've designed to give me a quick overview of the horses training and racing history, to the extent they can be seen.

In comparing the training methods between Baffert & Servis, you couldn't have happened upon a more extreme example, which the info graphic helps to point out.

What helps me most is, after viewing these by the 1000s, I have a good idea of the trainer patterns leading up to their winning races. What can be seen from the Restoring Hope form cycle example, Bafferts training vs. Servis' training, are entirely consistent with their usual methods for getting their horses ready to win.

But, as you have referenced, Servis trains extensively off tracks at the farm, and, I suspect, is not reporting all workouts done there to Equibase. There were 241 days between RH's last race on 6/9/18 and it's first published WO on 2/5/19 at PMM. From that point it worked 4 more times at PMM in slow 3 & 4Fs up to today's win, as can be seen from the graphic. I suspect RH was worked up to racing fitness somewhere else before the first published work on 2/5, which was followed by maintenance WOs for relaxation purposes after that up to today's victory.

I do another calculation of a horse's #F worked & raced per day for the form cycle leading up to the race I am handicapping. The graphic shows that calculation to be 0.3 F per day for RH starting from the 2/5/19 date of it first published work after the 241 day layoff. This #, 0.3 F per day is very low for a horse that wins. Most often its in the 0.4 - 0.7 range. If this record was for any other trainer, I'd consider it to be a negative indicator, but not for Servis's horses.

There are about 300 tracks and off-track training centers, so it would be impossible for Equibase to know who is and isn't reporting completely or correctly. In doing some research I talked to a Florida-based trainer whose workouts were being reported from an off-track training center as being over a track labeled as "Gd" 100% of the time, even during periods of drought in the region. He told me he thought the "Gd" label meant that his training location was "a nice place to train", like a "Gd" cup of coffee. Either he was playing dumb or was. Equibase could have/should have observed the same pattern I observed and done something about it for the sake of the integrity of its published information. Based on our conversation, this trainer has changed his WO reporting to accurately state the track's condition.

Such is the depressing state of the integrity of data supplied to the entire industry.

Attached Images
File Type: png RestoringHope.png (57.9 KB, 67 views)
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