Quote:
Originally Posted by Half Smoke
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re Rufus Peabody who developed a software company, Unabated, to formulate and sell sports picks
to be clear, I'm not recommending anybody buy his picks - I would never do that
but from several different articles the guy is a major league bettor himself - and the link is a story about his personal betting
the link tells how he bet the last Super Bowl - his thing is props - he had 130 different bets on just that one game - he and his team had more than $2 million worth of action on the game
from the article:
"Most of what Rufus and his team want to bet are unders, meaning players will get fewer yards, or points or tackles than the totals set by the bookmakers.
The public, however hates unders. We don't want to bet that something won't happen. We want to bet that something will happen. We like to bet overs.
Which means that by game day, and really the closer to the game the better, the bookmakers will move the lines ever so slightly up, to try to attract some action on the unders.
For people who want to bet overs, Rufus says bet early. If you want to bet unders wait as long as you can.
'I basically want nothing to happen,' Rufus says."
https://www.theringer.com/2022/9/28/...-rufus-peabody
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Finger on the pulse here for Super Bowl or, should I say, "The Big Game"
in the NFL. Apologies, I have purchased no rights to call it anything other
than "The Big Game". Those are the last dudes I need knocking on my door.
For decades now, the public, or square bettors, have dictated the direction of money line movement on said game. The underdog will always take the early action (say, for the first 10 days since opening line) then,
after the sharps reach their "strike zone", money will come laying the lumber on the favorite.
Value bet is consistent. Bet the "The Big Game" dog on the money line early.
You can buy some back, or even all of it, and lock up a profit for very little risk.
Even none at all, under the right market conditions.
