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Originally Posted by LoneF
Where do I start ?
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Probably on the wrong foot..
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AP crossed the line first in the 2015 derby. Bolt has not crossed the line first in any of his three races after the Frontrunner. So there is the first real problem with you trying to compare the 2015 derby to Bolts last 3 races.
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Of course, in no way was I comparing American Pharoah and Bolt D'Oro directly in terms of their relative pre-KY Derby prospects.
The point was you applied a careful analysis to AP's running line in the KY Derby, yet saw nothing wrong with the OP's slapdash run-through of Bolt D'Oro's past performances. You were inconsistent.
Let's try the other wrong foot...
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Great horses find ways to win. ( Zenyatta getting that horrible start and still winning the BC Cup classic, Alysheba getting blocked by Bet Twice repeatedly and also going to his knees all in the stretch and still winning the KY derby are a few examples ).
Good horses find excuses and not wins. BC Juvenile , San Felipe and SA Derby all are examples where Bolt didn’t cross the wire first but his supporters had a excuse to explain why he lost.
The KY Derby is like a magnet for excuses. It’s so easy for a horse not to win but have a valid excuse after the race. This race sets up perfectly for Bolt. I am sure he won’t win but I am also sure he will give his supporters a very valid reason to use in his defense why he didn’t win.
If Churchill Downs decides at the last minute to start paying out for the horse with the best excuse than I will give Bolt a long look but until that happens than I will put my money on horses that seem like they have a inner drive to be the horse that crosses the finish line first ...
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Interesting that you use the 3yo Alysheba as a horse with an inner drive to cross the finish line first.
He was 1 for 10 heading into the Kentucky Derby...
