Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802
A reliable way to measure a 3 yr old is by who he has beat, and the number of horses he beat? As two and three yr old's, IMO, you really can't do that. These horse's are growing and improving daily. They are also consistently in-consistent. For Derby horse's I would use, say a 105 Bris speed figure, or a 118 Timeform figure.
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I am not saying that who a horse has beat is the one and only handicapping factor one should look at when trying to figure out a race like the KY derby but it’s just common sense that it’s one of the primary things that should be factored in. It’s no less important than all this pedigree stuff that people on this forum like to throw around as gospel. Personally I don’t find it a compelling reason to bet a horse because in 1932 a horses great great great great grandmother won a race at a mile and a half.
I think when most people look at the DRF the first thing they look at is the horses most recent running lines and who they have been running against.
Maybe some people immediately go to the pedigree stuff first. For example I am one of those people that I don’t care if a horse has the best turf pedigree imaginable if that horse has had let’s say 10 previous tries in Turf and not done anything in any of them than I will be of a mindset that the horse has proven that for whatever reason he doesn’t like Turf, yet I acknowledge that there are many people on this forum that based on the immaculate turf pedigree that the horse has that they will swear the 11th time will be the charm.
Different strokes I guess ...
