Quote:
Originally Posted by trifecta
I tend to agree with Tom's comment. As an example, two horses whose pp's are similar, both with morning lines around 6/1, both mid-pack type of horses, each go into the gate at 8/1. One of them breaks well and its odds immediately drop to 7/2. The other one breaks near the back and its odds go to 10/1.
How did the computer guys know which 8/1 should be hammered a couple seconds before the gates opened, and which one should not?
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This seems like a contrived scenario. Sorry, but you are going to have to come up with a real life example or two of this actually playing out.
One thing that's important to understand, besides your above "example" being fantastical, is that models in general favor speed horses for obvious reasons, so it's hardly surprising that the horses taking their late play often show speed.
