My default method is to look for the best non-FTS contenders first, and determine if any of them have recently run anything reasonably close to par. If so, I'm reluctant to use a firster; if not, and I have a FTS that meets my minimum points requirement on the T/J angle AND shows promising works, I'll go with him, unless the market is already on him as reflected by the odds.
Anecdotal evidence suggests to me that the T/J angle works best in those races with a boatload of firsters. If a formal analysis proved that to be true, another angle might be added: T/J factor => 25, ratio of FTS to non-FTS => 50%, something like that.
That way, when your firster loses to a horse the little old lady next to you picked because she liked its name, you can hold your head high, and rationalize that at least you put some thought into it.
Mule
