Well, this is why I always argue that figures should not be taken too literally.
Different people will interpret results differently, the accuracy of prior figures matters, personal biases can impact the analysis etc..
IMO, there's nothing in Hoppy's record to indicate he's not as good now as on his better days. His 97 at 12F was off a layoff in a very big win where he wasn't all out and his last race was too short for him. This was his 3rd race off a layoff and he was probably aimed for this. He was running 101s against BETTER horses late last year even though he's probably at his best going 10F or 12F now.
Even if we split the difference, he's still a 101+ horse.
War Story is a pretty good racehorse with several races to support a triple digit figure and he took the same path into this year's event as last year's win.
Had they finished 3rd and 4th that would be one thing, but when they run 1-2 and look pretty good doing it, I'm not buying that they ran at the lower end of the possibilities.
The 3yos are tougher, BUT the general trend is for them to be getting faster not to be going sideways or backwards. If you don't build in some expected improvement you are bound to underestimate them over time.
12F races are at 2 turns. IMO, you have to at least consider breaking them out from the rest of the day, but if the races come up a little slow and you come into the analysis with a "slow bias", you'll take them at face value and make them slow. From his comments, I believe Beyer believes that US horses can't run 12F anymore. So he probably comes into the analysis with a bias that leads him to the conclusion that these races are slower than they actually are.
I don't think it's an accident that several horses came out of American Pharoah's Belmont and jumped up next time. It would not surprise me if several of these 3yos do also. They aren't world beaters but they aren't as slow as he has them.
