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I don't know. I think it boils down more to horses getting studded out early for the money. Why run American Pharoah at age 4 for a million dollar purse when he can knock up a few mares for the same money without the racing risk?
The last five Derby renewals featured winners that were running in the top three at every call around the track. If that "model" continues, put your Derby money on a horse that is going to be in the front third of the field before the first call.
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